Back to top

Image: Bigstock

Can Execution and Volume Trends Support DaVita's Q1 Earnings?

Read MoreHide Full Article

Key Takeaways

  • DaVita's Q1 performance may see volume pressure from fewer normalized treatment days and elevated mortality.
  • DaVita's Q1 RPT may face seasonal pressure from patient responsibility dynamics.
  • DVA leans on IKC and international ops to offset wage, health benefit and medical supply cost pressure.

DaVita Inc. (DVA - Free Report) is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 results on May 5, after the closing bell.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings per share (EPS) of $3.40 surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.9%. Over the trailing four quarters, its earnings outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate on three occasions and missed once, delivering an earnings surprise of 1.2%, on average.

Let’s check out the factors that have shaped DVA’s performance prior to this announcement.

Factors Likely to Affect DaVita

DaVita’s first-quarter 2026 performance is likely to have reflected a combination of seasonal headwinds and the company’s continued execution on operational priorities. Treatment volumes may have remained relatively stable on a full-year basis. However, the first quarter is expected to have seen some pressure due to an unfavorable mix of normalized treatment days, which could weigh on year-over-year volume growth in the period. At the same time, management continues to indicate that elevated mortality levels remain a near-term constraint on treatment growth, which may also have impacted volumes in the quarter.

Revenue per treatment (RPT) is expected to have been influenced by typical seasonal dynamics. On the fourth-quarter earnings call in February, management noted that the first quarter generally carries a headwind of approximately $5 or more per treatment, primarily due to patient responsibility factors early in the year. While routine rate increases and reimbursement trends are expected to support RPT over the course of 2026, this seasonal softness is likely to have weighed on top-line performance in the to-be-reported quarter.

Cost discipline is also expected to have remained an important factor in shaping first-quarter results. Patient care costs and general and administrative expenses are likely to have reflected ongoing pressure from wage increases, higher health benefit expenses and medical supply costs, consistent with trends observed in recent quarters. At the same time, DaVita’s continued focus on operational efficiency and productivity initiatives, along with contributions from integrated kidney care (IKC) and international operations, may have helped offset part of these cost pressures.

However, certain headwinds are likely to have persisted. In addition to the seasonal RPT impact and treatment-day dynamics, continued pressure from elevated mortality and broader reimbursement-related factors may limit near-term margin expansion.

Although the operating environment is expected to have remained somewhat mixed, a combination of underlying reimbursement growth and disciplined execution is expected to have helped support a relatively steady performance for DaVita in the first quarter of 2026, partially offsetting the impact of seasonal headwinds and volume-related pressures.

DVA’s Estimate Picture

For first-quarter 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $3.30 billion, implying an improvement of 2.4% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

The consensus estimate for EPS is pegged at $2.41, indicating an uptick of 20.5% from the prior-year period’s reported number.

What Our Model Suggests About DaVita

Per our proven model, a stock with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold), along with a positive Earnings ESP, has higher chances of beating estimates. This is not the case here, as you can see below.

Earnings ESP: DVA has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

DaVita Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

DaVita Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

DaVita Inc. price-eps-surprise | DaVita Inc. Quote

DVA’s Share Price Performance

Over the past three months, DaVita’s shares have gained 39.5% against Medical - Outpatient and Home Healthcare’s 0.4% decline. DVA’s shares have also outperformed the Zacks Medical sector’s decrease of 8.6% and the S&P 500’s growth of 2.1%.

Three-Month Price Comparison

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

DaVita’s peers like LifeStance Health Group, Inc. (LFST - Free Report) , Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. (AVAH - Free Report) and Addus HomeCare Corporation (ADUS - Free Report) have underperformed it. LFST’s shares have gained 5.4%, while AVAH and ADUS’ shares have lost 21.5% and 8%, respectively, in the same time frame.

Zacks' 7 Best Strong Buy Stocks (New Research Report)

Valued at $99, click below to receive our just-released report predicting the 7 stocks that will soar highest in the coming month.

Click Here, It's Really Free

Published in